Top IPOs to Watch — Vol. 5: Anthropic, OpenAI, Crusoe + 7 More — July 2026

Updated every Monday at 8:30 AM ET. This is Vol. 5 of the Aedilis pre-IPO tracker — the weekly scoreboard of the private companies retail investors are actually chasing. New here? Start with our complete pre-IPO investing guide.

The Roster — Week of July 6, 2026

Company	Valuation	IPO Status	Heat
Anthropic	$965B (Series H, May 2026)	Confidential S-1 filed June 1	🔥🔥🔥
Kraken	~$13.3B (May 2026 raise talk)	S-1 filed; Q3 2026 target	🔥🔥🔥
Crusoe	~$30B (reported talks, July 2026)	Pre-IPO round; 2027 candidate	🔥🔥🔥
OpenAI	~$830B (Dec 2025 round talks)	Filed; may slip to 2027	🔥🔥
Databricks	$134B closed; $165–175B in talks	2027, per CEO	🔥🔥
Cursor (Anysphere)	$60B (SpaceX acquisition)	Exiting via M&A, Q3 close	🔥🔥
Polymarket	~$15B (reported talks, April)	No filing; ICE-backed	🔥🔥
Revolut (new)	$115B (secondary talks, June)	IPO signaled ~2028	🔥🔥
Stripe	$159B (Feb 2026 tender)	No IPO intent	🔥

SpaceX (SPCX) has graduated to the Recently Public appendix below. Revolut is promoted from the wildcard pool to fill the seat.

1. Anthropic — The S-1 Is In

What changed this week: The biggest structural move of the summer. Anthropic confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC on June 1, 2026 — the same day it closed a $65 billion Series H led by Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia at a $965 billion post-money valuation (per Fortune, June 1, and the company’s own release). Anthropic says run-rate revenue crossed $47 billion, and the Wall Street Journal has reported the company projects a ~130% revenue surge into its first operating profit. A fall 2026 listing — potentially ahead of OpenAI — is now the base case among IPO watchers.

Valuation: $965B post-money (May 2026 Series H), up from $380B in the Series G — a 2.5x step-up in months.

Pros: Final private round is done, so the next print is likely the IPO itself. Enterprise revenue (Claude, Claude Code) is compounding fast. Filing before OpenAI means first-mover claim on public AI-lab capital.

Cons: You’re being asked to believe a near-$1T price before profitability is proven. Compute costs scale with revenue. If the AI capex cycle wobbles, the last private round becomes the ceiling, not the floor.

Retail action: ARKVX carries Anthropic exposure inside an interval fund anyone can buy. Indirect proxies: Alphabet and Amazon both hold significant Anthropic stakes. Full breakdown in our Anthropic deep-dive.

2. Kraken — Most Likely to Ring the Bell This Quarter

What changed this week: No new filing news, but the clock is running: co-CEO Arjun Sethi confirmed the confidential S-1 in April (CNBC, April 14) and said in May the exchange was roughly “80% ready” with a Q3 2026 listing target. That makes Kraken the most likely name on this board to actually trade this quarter.

Valuation: The sobering part — reported at ~$13.3B in May fundraising coverage (CoinDesk), down from the $20B talked about in November. Deutsche Börse paid $200M for 1.5% in April, which maths out to that same ~$13B zone.

Pros: Real revenue, real filing, near-term catalyst. Deutsche Börse’s strategic stake is institutional validation. Crypto volumes have been supportive.

Cons: A one-third valuation haircut in six months tells you demand is price-sensitive. Coinbase comparison will cap the multiple. Crypto-cycle beta cuts both ways.

Retail action: This one you may actually get to buy at the IPO. See which brokers actually allocate IPO shares to retail and get on the interest lists now.

3. Crusoe — The Hottest Private Repricing of the Summer

What changed this week: SiliconANGLE and others reported July 3 that Crusoe is in talks to raise ~$3B at a ~$30B valuation — roughly triple the $10B+ mark set by its $1.375B Series E (co-led by Valor and Mubadala, with NVIDIA participating) just last October. Flag: this is reporting on talks, not a signed round.

Valuation: ~$30B if the reported round closes; $10B+ as of the last confirmed raise.

Pros: ~4.9 GW of contracted capacity against a 40+ GW pipeline; Meta alone is under contract for ~1.6 GW. Energy-first data centers are the scarcest asset in AI. Fastest valuation climb among vertically integrated AI-infra players.

Cons: Tripling in eight months on a rumored round is exactly what late-cycle froth looks like. Capital intensity is enormous. Customer concentration (Meta) is real.

Retail action: No direct route and no clean public proxy. Watch for a 2027 IPO; accredited investors can hunt secondaries, but marks this fresh rarely offer sane entry prices.

4. OpenAI — Blinking Toward 2027

What changed this week: Reuters reported in late June that OpenAI is considering pushing its IPO to 2027, citing market volatility and SpaceX’s uneven debut. Polymarket traders put just ~3% odds on a listing kicking off by July 31. The company that was racing Anthropic to the bell may have just conceded the first lap.

Valuation: ~$830B per the December WSJ-reported funding discussions; a ~$1T public valuation remains the stated ambition.

Pros: Revenue passed $20B annualized by end-2025. Brand dominance in consumer AI. Bankers reportedly engaged — the machinery exists whenever it chooses.

Cons: Internal projections reportedly show ~$14B in losses for 2026 alone, with profitability not expected until around 2030. Waiting for a $1T sticker in a choppy tape is a bet, not a plan.

Retail action: No direct access. Microsoft remains the cleanest listed proxy. Details in our OpenAI deep-dive.

5. Databricks — Patient, Profitable-ish, and Pointing at 2027

What changed this week: Steady state. The company is reportedly in talks for a round at $165–175B (up from the $134B Series L closed in December 2025) — treat the top-end number as rumor until confirmed. CEO Ali Ghodsi said in June that 2026, crowded with SpaceX-scale listings, would be the “worst year” to go public; 2027 is his stated window, with JPMorgan widely expected as lead bookrunner.

Valuation: $134B confirmed; $165–175B in reported talks on a $5.4B revenue run rate growing 65%+.

Pros: Free-cash-flow positive since 2025 — rare in this cohort. AI products alone at a $1.4B run rate. Management is disciplined about timing.

Cons: A 30x+ forward revenue multiple at the rumored mark. Snowflake, Microsoft, and AWS all want its lunch. 18 months is a long time in AI.

Retail action: Nothing direct until 2027. Accredited investors can look at Forge/Hiive secondaries. Our Databricks deep-dive has the full model.

6. Cursor (Anysphere) — Exiting the Board, Stage Left, in a Rocket

What changed this week: This is Cursor’s final week as a standalone tracker entry. SpaceX announced June 16 that it’s acquiring Anysphere for $60 billion, with the deal expected to close in Q3 pending regulatory approval. Weeks earlier, Cursor had been in talks to raise $2B+ at ~$50B (TechCrunch, April 17). ARR reportedly hit ~$4B by June — up from $1B last November. One of the fastest software scale-ups ever recorded ends its private chapter inside a rocket company.

Valuation: $60B deal price vs. $29.3B Series D (November 2025). Early Series D investors roughly doubled in seven months.

Pros (for the deal): Immediate liquidity at a 2x markup; SPCX stock provides a continuing public vehicle.

Cons: Regulatory review isn’t a rubber stamp. Strategy questions — what does an AI code editor do for a launch company? — are unanswered. Integration risk is real.

Retail action: Once the deal closes, SPCX shares are the exposure. Cursor rotates off this roster and a new wildcard takes the seat next edition.

7. Polymarket — ICE’s Favorite Prediction Market

What changed this week: Quiet week. The standing story: Bloomberg reported in April that Polymarket is in talks to raise $400M at ~$15B — still unconfirmed by the company. What is confirmed: Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE’s parent) completed a $600M direct investment in March. Rival Kalshi’s reported $22B mark keeps the competitive pressure on.

Valuation: ~$15B reported talks, up ~66% from the ~$9B round last year.

Pros: ICE’s balance sheet and regulatory muscle behind a US re-entry. Prediction-market volumes forecast by one Wall Street broker to reach $1T by 2030. Category-defining brand.

Cons: Kalshi is out-raising it. Regulatory permanence in the US is still being built. Event-driven volume is lumpy — election years flatter the numbers.

Retail action: No direct route. ICE stock is the listed proxy with a real economic link.

8. Revolut — Promoted to the Core Nine

What changed this week: Revolut takes SpaceX’s vacated seat. Bloomberg reported June 5 that the fintech is weighing a secondary share sale at a $115B valuation — up from $75B in its November 2025 secondary, a 53% step-up in about seven months. It received a full UK banking licence in March and has filed for a US national bank charter.

Valuation: $115B (reported secondary talks) vs. $75B confirmed November 2025.

Pros: Real, diversified revenue across 50M+ customers. Licence momentum on two continents. Management has told investors an eventual IPO could target $150–200B.

Cons: The IPO itself is signaled for ~2028 — this is a long hold. Fintech multiples compress fast when rates move. Serial secondaries at ever-higher marks can substitute for, rather than lead to, a listing (see: Stripe).

Retail action: Nothing direct. Accredited investors occasionally find blocks on EquityZen and Hiive; everyone else waits.

9. Stripe — Still a Solution in Search of a Problem

What changed this week: Nothing — which is the story. February’s tender valued Stripe at $159B (CNBC, Feb 24) with Thrive, Coatue, and a16z buying. Total payment volume hit $1.9T in 2025, up 34%, and the company calls itself “robustly” profitable. John Collison’s line stands: an IPO is “a solution in search of a problem.”

Valuation: $159B (February 2026 tender), up from $91.5B a year earlier.

Pros: Profitable, self-funding, still compounding at scale. Tender offers give employees liquidity without a listing — a sign of strength.

Cons: That same strength means no IPO catalyst, possibly for years. Buying secondaries at $159B with no exit clock is dead money risk.

Retail action: Patience. Our Stripe deep-dive covers the alternatives if you want fintech exposure now.

Honorable Mentions

xAI closed a $20B Series E in January at a $230B valuation, with NVIDIA and Cisco among strategic investors alongside Fidelity, QIA, and MGX. No filing, no timeline — but any Musk-adjacent listing after SPCX’s debut would command attention, and the sovereign-wealth participation suggests the pre-IPO order book is already forming.

Anduril doubled its valuation to $61B in a May round led by Thrive and a16z after doubling 2025 revenue to $2.2B. Forge’s marked price implies the secondary market values it even higher — around $100B as of mid-June. Palmer Luckey says he wants manufacturing proven before listing. A 10,000-missile DoD hypersonics award doesn’t hurt the story.

Kalshi — Polymarket’s regulated rival — was last reported at a $22B valuation, out-marking Polymarket by nearly 50%. If prediction markets get their own IPO wave, Kalshi is likely first in line.

Recently Public — Performance Tracking

SpaceX (SPCX) — Week 4 of 8. The largest IPO in history priced at $135 on June 12, raising ~$75B, and closed its first day at $160.95, up 19.2% (CNBC). Then came the whipsaw: an all-time high of $225.64 on June 16, a slide to $147.11 by June 23, and a July 4 close near $162 — about +20% versus the IPO price and roughly flat versus day one. Market cap sits near $2 trillion. What we’re watching over the next four weeks: Nasdaq-100 inclusion mechanics (TradingKey estimates ~$4.3B of forced index buying against a ~3% float), the first public earnings report, the Q3 close of the Cursor acquisition, and eventual lockup-expiry supply. Our SPCX retail guide covers position sizing for a stock this volatile, and the original Starlink deep-dive has the business fundamentals.

Pre-IPO Fund Performance

Fund	YTD 2026	Access	Notable Holdings
DXYZ (Destiny Tech100)	−7.2%	NYSE-listed closed-end fund, any broker	SpaceX (~52% pre-IPO), OpenAI, Axiom Space
ARKVX (ARK Venture)	+20.9%	Interval fund; quarterly liquidity windows	SpaceX (~18%), Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI
ARKX (ARK Space & Defense)	+19.3% (as of Jun 18)	ETF, any broker	AMD 8.0%, Rocket Lab 7.9%, L3Harris 7.2%

The spread is the lesson this week. DXYZ, the fund most concentrated in SpaceX, is down on the year while ARK’s vehicles are up ~20% — because DXYZ traded at such an extreme premium to NAV going into the IPO that the actual liquidity event deflated it. When the thing you own goes public, a closed-end fund’s premium has nowhere to hide. ARKVX’s diversified private book (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI) captured the re-rating without the premium unwind, and it now holds freely tradable SPCX it can mark daily.

Secondary Market Access

Status check on the four platforms accredited investors use to buy private shares. Forge Global — remember, Forge (formerly NYSE: FRGE) was acquired by Charles Schwab on March 2, 2026 — continues operating under Schwab’s umbrella; expect deeper Schwab-account integration through 2026. EquityZen was acquired by Morgan Stanley (completed February 2026) and has cut fees to ~2.5% per side with $5,000 fund minimums — now the cheapest institutional-backed entry point. Hiive remains the only platform with a live order book and real price discovery; minimums around $25,000, with reported monthly volume above $250M. UpMarket continues offering single-name SPVs for accredited investors. The consolidation trend is the tell: Schwab and Morgan Stanley both paid up to own pre-IPO rails because the asset class is going mainstream — while the SEC’s accredited-investor wall still keeps most readers on the outside. Non-accredited? The funds table above is your menu.

Keep Reading

Previous edition: Vol. 4 (June 2026). Company deep-dives: Anthropic · OpenAI · Databricks · Stripe · the original Starlink deep-dive. Practical guides: pre-IPO investing for retail and best brokers for IPO access. Live tracker: the Aedilis IPO Tracker hub.

FAQ

Which is most likely to IPO this quarter (Q3 2026)?

Kraken. The S-1 is filed, co-CEO Arjun Sethi says the company is ~80% ready, and Q3 2026 is the stated target. The main variable is whether management accepts a ~$13B valuation after talking about $20B last fall.

What’s the lowest-friction way to get pre-IPO exposure?

For most readers: ARKVX, an interval fund holding SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI — buyable without accreditation, with quarterly liquidity. DXYZ trades on the NYSE but watch its premium/discount to NAV; this year showed how violently that premium can unwind. Accredited investors can add EquityZen (now Morgan Stanley-owned, ~$5k minimums) or Hiive.

What changed since the last edition?

Almost everything. Since Vol. 4 (June 1): SpaceX completed the largest IPO ever and moved to our tracking appendix, Anthropic filed its confidential S-1 at a $965B private mark, SpaceX agreed to buy Cursor for $60B, OpenAI reportedly considered delaying to 2027, Crusoe entered talks to triple its valuation to ~$30B, and Revolut joined the core roster on reports of a $115B secondary.

Is Anthropic really going public before OpenAI?

It’s now the more likely sequence. Anthropic’s S-1 is filed and its final private round is closed; OpenAI is reportedly weighing a 2027 delay to protect a $1T valuation target. Sequences change fast, but as of this week Anthropic holds the pole position.

What happens to Cursor after the SpaceX deal?

If the acquisition closes in Q3 as planned, Anysphere shareholders receive their exit at a $60B mark and public-market exposure to Cursor’s business runs through SPCX stock. Cursor leaves this roster and a new wildcard takes its seat.

Did DXYZ pay off for SpaceX holders?

Not the way many hoped. Despite SpaceX rising ~20% above its IPO price, DXYZ is down ~7% YTD because the fund traded at a large premium to NAV before the IPO. The event that validated the holding also collapsed the premium. Lesson: with closed-end funds, the price you pay relative to NAV matters as much as the assets inside.

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