What Is Crypto Confluence (and Why We Built It)

Read this first: This is social media analysis, not financial advice. We have no idea what your financial situation is, and have no business giving you financial advice. You will lose money in crypto, and should not invest or trade crypto.

What it is, in one sentence

Crypto Confluence is a free tool from Aedilis that watches 9 crypto YouTube creators around the clock, extracts the specific price calls they make, and scores those calls against actual market data over rolling 7-day, 30-day, and 90-day windows.

The output is a public dashboard: who’s bullish, who’s bearish, where the loudest voices on crypto YouTube agree on a price level — and, increasingly over time, who’s actually been right.

Why we built it

The retail crypto trader’s information diet is structurally broken. You sit down to “do your research” and 30 minutes later you’ve watched five creators contradict each other, each one talking about a different time horizon, each one cherry-picking the chart that supports their thesis. Forty-five minutes later you make a trade. Two days later you lose money.

None of that is the creators’ fault — they have to publish multiple times a week to keep an audience, they have to lead with a strong hook, and a creator who says “I don’t know” gets unsubscribed from. The incentives are the incentives.

What’s missing is *accountability*. There is no public scoreboard. Nobody is keeping receipts. A creator can be wrong loudly for 18 months and still grow their channel because last week they nailed one move.

Crypto Confluence keeps receipts. Every specific call gets logged with a timestamp, a target, and a time horizon, and we resolve it against actual market data when the horizon hits. Over time, the scoreboard tells you who’s been right and who hasn’t — and that’s information you can’t get from watching the videos themselves.

How it works (under the hood)

Every twelve hours, here’s what happens, fully automated:

1. Discover. We hit the YouTube Data API for each of the 9 monitored creators and find their latest upload from the last 36 hours. Shorts and livestreams over 60 minutes are filtered out.
2. Transcribe. We pull the auto-generated English captions with yt-dlp. No re-uploading, no third-party transcription cost.
3. Extract. The transcript goes to Google Gemini 2.5 Pro with a structured-output schema. The model returns a JSON object: a one-paragraph summary, an overall sentiment score on a -2 to +2 scale, every specific price call as a (coin, direction, target, time-horizon) quadruple, and the price levels the creator is watching as support or resistance.
4. Cluster. Across all 9 creators in the last 48 hours, we cluster the price levels they’re watching into 1.5% bands. A band with 6 creators flagging it gets a “consensus” badge.
5. Score. Every still-pending call gets checked against CoinGecko spot prices. If the target was reached in the predicted direction before the horizon expired, it’s a HIT. If the horizon expired without reaching, it’s a MISS. Otherwise it stays PENDING.
6. Publish. The dashboard at aedilis.app/tools/crypto-confluence/ gets rewritten with the latest data, and each creator profile gets its own page refresh.

Who’s on the roster

We picked 9 creators across different methodologies and time horizons:

• Frankie Candles — short-timeframe TA
• Benjamin Cowen — multi-year macro modeling
• Jason Pizzino — Elliott Wave + cycle theory
• King of the Charts — top-and-bottom calling
• Crypto Face — leveraged trading commentary
• MegaWhaleCrypto — bear-market analysis
• BitcoinHyper — short-horizon BTC TA
• The Road to 1M — beginner-oriented BTC analysis
• The Investor Accelerator — macro + global markets

The roster is deliberate. Tracking only the loudest perma-bulls would skew the consensus and tell you nothing. Tracking only macro analysts would miss the short-timeframe noise that drives retail behavior. The mix matters.

What Crypto Confluence is NOT

It is not a buy or sell signal. It is not a recommendation. It is not a trading system, and using it as one is a fast path to losing money.

It is also not a verdict on any creator’s value. Some of the most useful crypto commentators barely make specific price calls — they teach methodology, they help you build mental models, they raise good questions. The scoreboard doesn’t measure any of that. A creator with a 35% hit-rate on specific price targets might still be the most valuable thing in your information diet for reasons the scoreboard can’t see.

It is especially not a way to identify “alpha.” If a Crypto Confluence-tracked creator consistently has a 70% hit-rate, the market will discover that and front-run their calls. The scoreboard is a sanity check, not an edge.

What changes when the data piles up

Right now the scoreboard is seeded — most calls are still PENDING because we just started tracking them. Over the next 30-90 days, as those calls resolve, the rolling hit-rate columns will fill in and patterns will emerge. Probably:

• Some creators with reputations for being “right all the time” will have surprisingly mediocre hit-rates. (That’s normal — confirmation bias makes us remember the hits.)
• Some quiet, careful creators will surprise.
• The consensus-level signal will turn out to be more useful than any individual creator’s score.
• One bad month for any creator won’t tell you much. Three bad months will.

We’ll publish a quarterly “what the scoreboard learned” post on Aedilis. If you want it in your inbox, the dashboard has a signup at the bottom.

What you actually see: trade setup cards

The dashboard and each creator profile page now show structured trade setup cards — not just “Creator X is bullish on BTC.” Each card breaks down the specific trade the creator described:

• Asset + direction — BTC ▲ LONG or ETH ▼ SHORT
• Entry zone — the price range the creator said to enter, if they named one. Not every creator gives a clean entry zone; some just say “at current price.”
• Stop loss — the price where the trade thesis is wrong. When a creator says “if we lose 98k the setup is broken” — that’s the stop.
• Target level — the price the call is aiming for, with percentage distance from the entry zone shown.
• Risk/reward ratio — when both stop and target are available, we compute R:R automatically. A trade with a 1:3 R:R means you’re risking $1 to make $3.

Below each card is a short verbatim quote from the creator’s transcript — the exact words Gemini used to extract the call. That’s your primary source check: if the quote doesn’t match the card, flag it.

Scalp, swing, or macro?

Every call gets a timeframe badge. We derive it from the number of days the creator implied:

• Scalp (purple badge) — 1–3 days. Intraday setups, quick breakouts, “by the end of the week.”
• Swing (blue badge) — 4–30 days. Weekly to monthly moves, standard chart setups.
• Macro (teal badge) — 31+ days. Cycle calls, multi-month theses, “end of year targets.”

This matters because a creator who nails macro calls but blows scalps, or vice versa, is still useful — just not for the timeframe you’re looking at. The scoreboard aggregates all timeframes; each creator profile page shows the timeframe badge on every individual call so you can see at a glance which calls are scalp vs. swing vs. macro.

The honest disclaimer (again)

Crypto Confluence is a free aggregation tool. We don’t trade based on its output. We don’t recommend you do either. Most readers of Aedilis are better served by the boring path: index funds, a high savings rate, tax-advantaged accounts, and zero crypto. Here’s that path.

— Marcus Webb

Reminder: This is social media analysis, not financial advice. We have no idea what your financial situation is, and have no business giving you financial advice. You will lose money in crypto, and should not invest or trade crypto.

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